"The young Indian Muslim will decide India's next PM.." Published first on india.com and hacked by right wingers immediately to silence my right to free speech.. But won't be dissuaded...

As the Loksabha elections draw closer, experts of all hues and sizes will try to forecast, based upon some convenient logic but mostly speculation, how Muslims will vote. While they might not always be accurate in decoding the mind of the Muslim voter, they all implicitly agree to the importance that this voting bloc carries in installing the government in Delhi. Although there is no religious classification of voters undertaken by the Election Commission of India, it doesn't require any rocket science to decipher that the Muslim voter carries influence in over 200 Loksabha seats across India where he/she constitutes a minimum of 11 percent of the vote.

Two factors are poised to play a significant role in shaping the outcome of the next general election. Firstly, the addition, on average,  of over 1.7 lakh first time voters (FTVs) of which almost 90000 are in the age group of 18-22 years, in every parliamentary constituency and secondly, the marked increase in voter turn out (co-inciding with this addition of young eligible voters to the electoral list) that has been witnessed in several preceding state assembly elections, giving rise to a similar trend forecast for the general election beginning next month. Now, here is a factoid that most political parties addressing the issues of Muslims, seem to be unaware of or seem to be ignoring (either way at their own peril ) . 64% of Muslims, as per the NSSO survey , are below the age of 30 years. As per the latest census, the population of India below 35 years of age is 51.8%. It's quite clear, when you read the above two statistics together, that purely in proportional terms, Indian Muslims constitute a larger part of this young,first time vote. 

Here's perhaps another indicator confirming this self-evident truth. West Bengal (42), Uttar Pradesh (80) and Assam (14) with a total of 136 loksabha seats , are three of the six states (comprising a total of 200 odd seats ) in India where the number of voters between 18 and 19 years of age per constituency is higher than the national average. As per the 2001 census, the population of Muslims in these three states was about 25.25% , 18.5% and 30.9 % respectively, well above the national average of 13.4% . It is widely expected that this trend would have been further consolidated in the latest 2011 census too. The importance and relevance of the young Muslim voter, intent on making his/her voice  be heard cannot be underplayed. 

Another factor that every party is now trying to focus on is the "urban vote". If one considers the statistics in this regard, about 3000 towns form part of about 200 loksabha seats. Of these, Congress party in 2009 had managed to win 115 odd seats. Clearly in 2014 , the party that does well across these urban seats will have a huge edge over its rivals in forming the next government. Now, when it comes to the urban vote as well, it would be interesting to note that  according to the 2001 census 35.7% of the Muslim population was urban compared to 27.8% for the overall population. It's widely accepted that this demographic trend of urbanisation amongst Muslims would be further consolidated in the 2011 census ( as it has done over last few decades) thus indicating that proportionate influence Muslim voters wield in urban areas would also be higher. 

The important and pertinent question however is that will Indian Muslims vote as a single consolidated bloc for or against any party or personality? Will Muslims be wooed by the singular slogan of "secularism" (I call this convenient secularism), often considered to be euphemism for a cynical, worn out brand of identity politics or will secularism have to be tempered and nuanced with aspirational agendas of development( what I call Secularism +) , which any community bearing the socio-economic and socio-political realities of Indian Muslims would expect from their next government. The answers to these questions and many more, which can unlock the mind of the young Indian Muslim voter, lie in closely examining the circumstances of the community, studying the challenges before it and engaging in a discussion with its constituents rather than the media-created, self-appointed and often disconnected spokespersons of Muslims, who have very little knowledge about the churning that is taking place amongst Muslims and whose vested, conflicted interests usually predicated on self-preservation, prevent them from reading or addressing, the under currents of the changing Muslim mind.

As a young, educated Indian Muslim whose faith in the Indian Constitutional scheme is unshakeable, I find this to be the most opportune moment in the history of independent India for us, to dialogue with the Indian state and its stake holders through the medium of participatory politics to address a large number of socio-economic issues that have been flagged, chapter and verse, by various objective reports and commissions yet remain largely unaddressed. Today, there is an increasing awareness in Muslims about the  role we will play in deciding who will be India's next Prime Minister. Indian Muslims, armed with this self confidence, want all political parties to engage with it, through a democratic discourse and address their concerns going forward. Only those parties that recognise this are bound to get our support for the support of the thinking Indian Muslim can hardly be expected to bequeathed as a matter of political legacy . And those who don't recognise, may very well be relegated to being nothing more than a PM in waiting.