अगला पीएम भारत के मुसलमान तय करेंगे. First posted on navbharat times blog http://readerblogs.navbharattimes.indiatimes.com/The-Muslim-Diary/entry/youngindianmuslimswilldecidenextpm1

जैसे ही लोकसभा के चुनाव नज़दीक आते जायेंगे वैसे ही, हर प्रकार के विशेषज्ञ , कुछ अपने सुविधाजनक  तर्क के आधार  पर और ज़्यादातर अपने अटकलों के आधार पर , मुस्लिम वोट किसे नसीब होगा, इसकी भविष्यवाणी ज़रूर करते पाये जाएंगे ! और इन प्रयासों में चाहे उन्हें पूरी  सफलता न मिले तब भी , यह वोटिंग गुट, दिल्ली में सरकार बनाने में कितना महत्वपूर्ण भूमिका अदा  करेगा, इस पर तोह उनकी आम सहमति ज़रूर प्रतीत होती है।  चुनाव आयोग द्वारा वोटर लिस्ट का धार्मिक वर्गिकरण न कराये जाने पर भी यह जान पाना, कि देश भर में २०० से अधिक लोकसभा क्षेत्रों में, जहाँ मुस्लिम वोट ११% से ज़यादा है, वहाँ इस तपके का खासा प्रभाव होगा, यह कोई राकेट विज्ञानं का रहस्य नहीं है।  

 

दो और कारक हैं जो आनेवाले चुनावों के नतीजों को निश्चित रूप से प्रभावित करेंगे - पहला यह कि हर चुनावी क्षेत्र में औसतन  १. ७ लाख पहली बार मतदान करनेवाले वोटर  जुड़ेंगे , जिसमे से लगबग ९०००० नए वोटर १८-२२ कि उम्र के होंगे। दूसरा - वोटर टर्न-आउट में उल्लेखनीय वृद्धि ( जो पहली बार मतदान करनेवाले वोटरों की संख्या वृद्धि से मेल खाता है) का ट्रेंड, जिसे  पिछले कुछ  विधान सभाओं में देखा गया है और जो आनेवाले लोकसभा के चुनावों में भी बरक़रार रहना का ठोस संकेत देता है।   एन.एस.एस.ओ द्वारा सर्वे के अनुसार देश के ६४% मुस्सलमन की उम्र ३० वर्ष से नीचे है जबकि देश भर में ५१. ८ % लोगों की उम्र ३५ साल से कम है।  अर्थात अगर आनुपातिक मापदंड से देखा जाए तो भारतीय मुस्सलमन इस पहली बार मतदान करनेवाले वोटर गुट का बड़ा हिस्सा होगा। 

 

अब इस आत्म स्पष्ट सत्य को और बल मिलता है जब हम इस आकड़े कि ओर रुख करेंगे - असम , पश्चिम बंगाल और उत्तर प्रदेश जिनमे कुल मिलाकर १३६ लोकसभा क्षेत्र आते हैं , ऐसे राज्य हैं जहाँ १८-१९ उम्रवाले पहली बार मतदान करनेवाले वोटरों की संख्या , राष्ट्रिय औसत से ज़यादा है।  संयोग से इन तीन प्रदेशों में, २००१ जन गणना के अनुसार, मुस्लिम आबादी ३०.९ % , २५. २५% एवं १८. ५%  है जो राष्ट्रिय औसत (१३. ४% ) से कई अधिक है।  माना जाता है कि २०११ की जन गणना में यही ट्रेंड और भी मज़बूत हुआ है। एक बात बड़ी स्पष्ट है कि अपनी राजनैतिक आवाज दर्ज कराये जाने पर आमादा युवा मुस्लिम मतदाता की प्रासंगिकता और महत्व को किसी भी रूप से हलके में नहीं लिया जा सकता है।  

 

  आज कल हर पार्टी शहरी वोट पर भी अपना ध्यान केंद्रित करने कि कोशिश कर रही है।  देशभर में लगबग ३००० शहरी समूह कुछ २०० लोकसभा क्षेत्रों में स्थित हैं। २००९ के चुनावों में कांग्रेस पार्टी को इन २०० सीटों में से ११५ में जीत हासिल हुई। आनेवाले चुनावों में भी यह तैय है कि जो पार्टी इन शहरी लोकसभा क्षेत्रों में बढ़त हासिल करेगी वह पार्टी के केंद्र में सरकार बनाने के आसार अधिक होंगे।  अब इसी सिलसिले में यह दिलचस्प बात को नोट किया जाना चाहिए कि २००१ जन गणना के अनुसार ३५. ७ % मुस्लिम आबादी शहरी था जबकि समग्र आबादी के लिए यह आकड़ा २७. ८% का था ! अब २०११ में भी इसी ट्रेंड के बरक़रार रहने का अर्थ यही है कि शहरी क्षेत्रों में भी मुस्लिम मतदाताओं का आनुपातिक प्रभाव भी अधिक होगा।

 

अब सबसे महत्वपूर्ण और प्रासंगिक सवाल यह है कि क्या भारतीय मुसलमान, किसी एक पार्टी या व्यक्तित्व के पक्ष में या उसके खिलाफ, एक एकल समेकित गुट के रूप में वोट देंगे? क्या ऐसी धरमनिर्पेक्षता, जिसे हम अवसरवाद और संकीर्ण आईडेंटिटी पॉलिटिक्स के रूप में "सुविधाजनक धरमनिर्पेक्षता" के नज़रिये से ज़यादा देखते है, के एकवचन नारे पर मुस्सलमानो को लुभाया जा सकता है? क्या धर्मनिरपेक्षता के इस नारे को विकास के ऐसे एजेंडे , (जो मुस्सलमानो कि सामाजिक-आर्थिक और सामाजिक-राजनीतिक वास्तविकताओं को मत्ते नज़र रखते हुए अत्यंत ही ज़रूरी है ) के साथ सूक्ष्म होना होगा? ( जिसे में "धरमनिर्पेक्षता प्लस " कहता हूँ) युवा मुस्लिम वोटर के मूड और मन को हम तब ही समझ पाएंगे जब मुस्लिम समाज कि परिस्थितियों का तथा कौम के सामने खड़ी भारी चुनौतियाँ का हम गम्भीरता से अध्ययन करें और उस तपके के साथ एक सीधी चर्चा करे (न कि उन स्वयं नियुक्त बिचौलियों के माध्यम से जो केवल अपने निजी हितों और फायदे कि लालसा से प्रेरित होकर कौम के प्रवक्ता होने का ढोंग रचते हैं।) 

 

 एक युवा भारतीय मुस्सलमन (जिसका संविधान के प्रति अटूट भरोसा है) , होने के नाते मुझे लगता है यह स्वतंत्र भारत के इतिहास में सबसे माकूल पल है हम मुसलमानों के लिए ,भागीदारी राजनीति के माध्यम से , संवाद शुरू करने का, भारतीय राज्य से और इसके स्टेक होल्डरों से, उन सामाजिक-आर्थिक पिछड़ेपन  के  मुद्दों पर , जिसे कई रिपोर्टों में उल्लेख तोह मिला है पर सही मायनों में तवज्जु नहीं।  आज,एक बढ़ती हुई जागरूकता और आत्मविश्वास है मुसलमानों में, भारत के अगले प्रधानमंत्री तैय करने की अपनी भूमिका और क्षमता के प्रति। केवल वे पार्टियां जो इस बात को समजने का प्रयास करेगी उसे मुस्लिम समर्थन प्राप्त होगा क्यूकि यह समर्थन किसी भी व्यक्ति या दल को राजनैतिक विरासत के रूप में नहीं प्राप्त होगा। और जो कोई इस बात को नहीं समझ पायेगा वह प्रधान मंत्री का उम्मीदवार चाहे बन जाए, प्रधान मंत्री की  खुर्सी  से ज़रूर वंचित रेह जाएगा ! 

Mumbra Combing op (where 80Muslims were detained) & need for Police Reforms ... Posted first on ibnlive.com here http://ibnlive.in.com/group-blog/the-india-blog/2683/mumbra-incident-political-parties-must-include-police-reforms-in-lok-sabha-manifesto/65143.html

If eye-witness accounts and independent news reports are to be believed "Aatankwadiyon ko bahar nikalo" (bring the terrorists out) seemed to be the alleged mission of the Mumbra police led by ACP Amit Kale when over 200 of them, descended, much like the "German brownshirts " in a mid-night combing operation in Rashid Compound in the Kausa area of Mumbra, which is a suburb in Thane, nearly 30kms away from 'cosmopolitan' Mumbai. Was the mission's stated motive at all tempered by the fact that 80 per cent of the 9 lakh people living in Mumbra are Muslims is a matter for us to delve upon candidly. Would the police have adopted the same approach while raiding colonies of non-Muslims? There are legitimate questions being thrown up in response to the controversial modus operandi adopted by the local police on that fateful night.

The answers will be neither convenient nor pleasant for the Home Ministry led by R.R Patil, a gentleman who would like all of us to believe that he is a strong proponent of the idea of secularism, which entails the dispensation of executive functions without any bias for or against any religious community or group. How the search for two men of Balochi descent, involved in petty chain snatching, warranted the herding and illegal detention of 80 innocent, law abiding Indian citizens some as old as 75 years , who bear no resemblance to the persons of interest is indeed intriguing. Were all the standard operating procedures (SOPs) with regard to such raids followed by the local police? That the cops needed seven big police vans (including a few smaller ones) to round up just two men also raises questions about the real motive behind this operation. Was it as innocent as we are being made to believe? That such police high-handedness and excesses continue to happen so blatantly, without regard to the law and constitutional guarantees protecting Right to Life and Personal Liberty, is disheartening though not very surprising.

After filing a petition with the National Human Rights Commission and the National Commission for Minorities to probe the incident on the grounds that the fundamental human rights of a section of Indian citizens were grossly violated, I have been given to understand that the Thane police has apparently sent the concerned officer Amit Kale on a compulsory leave and promised to have an enquiry. But it seems unlikely that anything less than an independent probe would be able to establish the failure at the highest levels of the police and political establishment.

To view this incident as a one-off, isolated case would be a grave folly. It is neither my case that such an arbitrary use of police power has happened for the first time nor is it my contention that many other disenfranchised communities - women, juveniles, gays and lesbians, sex workers, etc don't face equally appalling treatment at the hands of the police, whether in Maharashtra or elsewhere. But the fact that police brutality is inclined towards minority groups especially Muslims is borne out by cold, hard facts- be it the disproportionately higher number of Muslim under trials relative to their final conviction rate or the alarmingly high proportion of Muslims figuring in extra-judicial killings also called "fake encounters" in popular parlance.

The level of interaction between minorities and the police is much higher given the overwhelming presence of cops in the urbane, ghettoized, slum like inhabitations of Muslims. This can be confirmed by a visit to the nearest slum with significant Muslim population whether in Mumbai or Ahmedabad. (Given their poor economic condition and backwardness coupled with unique social circumstances Muslims are forced to live in urban slums). The volatile cocktail of distrust and fear of the "other" actually builds up a fence of insecurity between those policing and those being policed rather than making the community feel secure. That such a communal predisposition of the police towards minorities is a national reality across many states, irrespective of the ideological moorings of the party in power controlling the Home department (in this case the "secular" NCP) suggests that in practice there is very little to choose in terms of qualitative secular leadership that is provided by various parties whilst they hold that office.

Now, the causes for police excesses are quite deep seated and usually indicate a larger failure at policy formulation and implementation level. It has everything to do with the politico-structural orientation of the police force- from being conceived by an archaic legislation of imperial origin dating to the 1860s, designed to establish total subservience of "subjects" rather than to secure co-operation of citizens, to the scope it leaves for unhealthy political intervention in police affairs that render it to be incompetent, impotent, corrupt and inefficient. Policing in India had ceased to become about investigations and law & order long time ago. At best the police seems to be operating as uniformed mercenaries, owing allegiance to local and regional power brokers in every state that offer them patronage of various kinds. Neither there is little reward or scope to be professional nor is there any screening mechanism that filters out the corrupt and communal elements from operating within the police. Instead of training the cop to be immune from crude socio-political and societal tendencies and impulses that hamper his/her professional approach, the current system of policing exposes the cop to its worst manifestations. It makes him a product of the very same forces that we intend for him to fight against using his danda (baton)! I, for one, would not be very surprised if an independent probe were to reveal that this "Mumbra combing operation" isn't the only case of high handedness by ACP Amit Kale towards Muslims. Amit Kale or his wrongful actions are a symptom of a disease. The malaise, that we need to fight, is the system that allows for Amit Kale to function in a biased manner and go unpunished for it.

The entire cop-citizen relationship paradigm in India today is hinged on an adversarial rather than a co-operative plane. The normal reaction of an average, well-to-do citizen on seeing a policeman borders on fear and pessimism. So you can well imagine how impoverished communities grappling with their debilitating socio-economic realities would perceive cops. When incidents like the Mumbra combing operation take place, they add to the sense of insecurity and alienation. Now, this in turn can have very grave implications. The idea of enlisting the co operation of citizenry isn't just a function of civilized policing but one of intelligent policing which aims at enlisting citizens to become the "eyes and ears" in maintaining law and order, fighting crime and terror.

Professional policing is the only answer to incidents such as the one that took place on 13th March. For that, it is necessary that we as citizens demand reforms in the entire policing system. Too many forged cheques have been issued to Muslims in the name of secularism. What we need urgently as a community and more so as a citizenry is an instant cash payout on the issue of police reforms. Political parties won't go beyond paying lip service to this. Frankly, even the media won't champion the cause of police reforms as it is considered to be a rather dull political agenda and requires a basic level of IQ and seriousness which most in the tribe of shoot & scoot, byte-collection journalism lack. Most bright lights of journalism seem to remember (and sanctimoniously tweet on) this issue only when Amir Khan dedicates a Satyameva Jayate episode to it! The rest of the time they go around lionising and celebrating the exploits of so-called "encounter specialists"! I haven't heard of any civilised people who feel proud about how their cops short-circuit the legal route and carry out unauthorised executions at will. We in India make films about such cops! That being said, only an informed and aware citizenry can put this important issue on the front burner of the poll agenda in the forthcoming general elections. I hope that the residents of Mumbra who have been put through this ordeal and others who are similarly situated, will vote on this important issue lest they wish that police comes looking for the "Aatankwadi" amongst them once again!

"The young Indian Muslim will decide India's next PM.." Published first on india.com and hacked by right wingers immediately to silence my right to free speech.. But won't be dissuaded...

As the Loksabha elections draw closer, experts of all hues and sizes will try to forecast, based upon some convenient logic but mostly speculation, how Muslims will vote. While they might not always be accurate in decoding the mind of the Muslim voter, they all implicitly agree to the importance that this voting bloc carries in installing the government in Delhi. Although there is no religious classification of voters undertaken by the Election Commission of India, it doesn't require any rocket science to decipher that the Muslim voter carries influence in over 200 Loksabha seats across India where he/she constitutes a minimum of 11 percent of the vote.

Two factors are poised to play a significant role in shaping the outcome of the next general election. Firstly, the addition, on average,  of over 1.7 lakh first time voters (FTVs) of which almost 90000 are in the age group of 18-22 years, in every parliamentary constituency and secondly, the marked increase in voter turn out (co-inciding with this addition of young eligible voters to the electoral list) that has been witnessed in several preceding state assembly elections, giving rise to a similar trend forecast for the general election beginning next month. Now, here is a factoid that most political parties addressing the issues of Muslims, seem to be unaware of or seem to be ignoring (either way at their own peril ) . 64% of Muslims, as per the NSSO survey , are below the age of 30 years. As per the latest census, the population of India below 35 years of age is 51.8%. It's quite clear, when you read the above two statistics together, that purely in proportional terms, Indian Muslims constitute a larger part of this young,first time vote. 

Here's perhaps another indicator confirming this self-evident truth. West Bengal (42), Uttar Pradesh (80) and Assam (14) with a total of 136 loksabha seats , are three of the six states (comprising a total of 200 odd seats ) in India where the number of voters between 18 and 19 years of age per constituency is higher than the national average. As per the 2001 census, the population of Muslims in these three states was about 25.25% , 18.5% and 30.9 % respectively, well above the national average of 13.4% . It is widely expected that this trend would have been further consolidated in the latest 2011 census too. The importance and relevance of the young Muslim voter, intent on making his/her voice  be heard cannot be underplayed. 

Another factor that every party is now trying to focus on is the "urban vote". If one considers the statistics in this regard, about 3000 towns form part of about 200 loksabha seats. Of these, Congress party in 2009 had managed to win 115 odd seats. Clearly in 2014 , the party that does well across these urban seats will have a huge edge over its rivals in forming the next government. Now, when it comes to the urban vote as well, it would be interesting to note that  according to the 2001 census 35.7% of the Muslim population was urban compared to 27.8% for the overall population. It's widely accepted that this demographic trend of urbanisation amongst Muslims would be further consolidated in the 2011 census ( as it has done over last few decades) thus indicating that proportionate influence Muslim voters wield in urban areas would also be higher. 

The important and pertinent question however is that will Indian Muslims vote as a single consolidated bloc for or against any party or personality? Will Muslims be wooed by the singular slogan of "secularism" (I call this convenient secularism), often considered to be euphemism for a cynical, worn out brand of identity politics or will secularism have to be tempered and nuanced with aspirational agendas of development( what I call Secularism +) , which any community bearing the socio-economic and socio-political realities of Indian Muslims would expect from their next government. The answers to these questions and many more, which can unlock the mind of the young Indian Muslim voter, lie in closely examining the circumstances of the community, studying the challenges before it and engaging in a discussion with its constituents rather than the media-created, self-appointed and often disconnected spokespersons of Muslims, who have very little knowledge about the churning that is taking place amongst Muslims and whose vested, conflicted interests usually predicated on self-preservation, prevent them from reading or addressing, the under currents of the changing Muslim mind.

As a young, educated Indian Muslim whose faith in the Indian Constitutional scheme is unshakeable, I find this to be the most opportune moment in the history of independent India for us, to dialogue with the Indian state and its stake holders through the medium of participatory politics to address a large number of socio-economic issues that have been flagged, chapter and verse, by various objective reports and commissions yet remain largely unaddressed. Today, there is an increasing awareness in Muslims about the  role we will play in deciding who will be India's next Prime Minister. Indian Muslims, armed with this self confidence, want all political parties to engage with it, through a democratic discourse and address their concerns going forward. Only those parties that recognise this are bound to get our support for the support of the thinking Indian Muslim can hardly be expected to bequeathed as a matter of political legacy . And those who don't recognise, may very well be relegated to being nothing more than a PM in waiting.